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High crue expected in Inner Niger Delta

OPIDIN forecasts a high flood this year in the Inner Niger Delta, comparable to recent high floods in 2018 and 2020, and clearly higher than last year. The flood will probably reach a level well above 650, may be even higher. This will depend however on the discharge in the coming weeks and the rainfall upstream.

Flood predictions current season

OPIDIN has been operational again since 1 August this year, forecasting the height of the flood in the Niger Delta for the stations of Mopti, Akka and Dire. Unlike in previous years, no weekly bulletins are published this year. The information on water levels is updated weekly, and the predicted flood can be followed via the flood forecast page.

Bulletin 11 | 12 October 2021

The water level in Mopti has now been at about the same level for 22 days, and it is not likely it will increase further. It is more likely that the water level will now gradually fall and that this year the maximum water level in Mopti (633 cm) has been reached . The maximal flooding is this year about as high as in 2019.

Bulletin 10 | 5 October 2021

The temporary decline of the water level last week, before the peak level is reached, is extremely rare and was only observed in 2005 and 2010. It is unclear if the water level will further increase, but it is very unlikely that the flood will be as high as last year and in 2018 (670 cm). It is more likely that the peak will be as high as 2019 (640 cm) or a bit lower.

Bulletin 9 | 28 September 2021

The water level in Mopti rose by only one cm in the past week and fell by 5 cm in the next three days to 623 cm on 28 September. This indicates that the flooding has already reached its peak. However, based on the earlier course of the flood and rainfall, OPIDIN predicted that the water level would rise another 40 cm or so to reach its peak in the second half of October. It is still possible that the drop in water level last week was temporary and that the water level will rise again in the coming weeks. The unexpected course of the flood will be further analysed.

Bulletin 8 | 21 September 2021

The water level in Mopti rose by 12 cm the last week. That is, on average, by 2 cm a day. The water level is this year in Mopti on 21 September already 76 cm higher than the peak level of the flood in 2017, but OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will reach a peak level as high as in 2016, 2018 and 2020.

Bulletin 7 | 14 September 2021

The water level in Mopti rose by 23 cm the last eight days. That is, on average, by 3 cm a day. The water level is this year in Mopti already 64 cm higher than the peak level of the flood in 2017, but OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will still increase about another 56 cm the coming weeks.

Bulletin 6 | 6 September 2021

The water level in Mopti rose by 27 cm within a week. The water level is this year in Mopti on 6 September already 41 cm higher than the peak level of the flood in 2017, but OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will still increase about 90 cm the coming weeks.

Bulletin 5 | 31 August 2021

The water level in Mopti rose by 45 cm within a week. The water level is this year in Mopti on 31 August already higher than the peak level of the flood in 2017, but OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will still increase about one meter and reach a peak level as high as the last three years and in 2016.

Bulletin 4 | 24 August 2021

The water level in Mopti has risen by 40 cm within six days. The increase of the water level last week makes it likely that the peak flood in 2021 will be relatively high, probably even as high as the last three years and in 2016.

Bulletin 3 | 17 August 2021

The water level in Mopti has risen, on average, by 10 cm a day, which is relatively fast compared to other years. The fast increase of the water level last week, makes it more likely that the peak flood in 2021 will be relatively high, probably even as high as the last three years and in 2016.

Bulletin 2 | 9 August 2021

The water level in Mopti has risen by 112 cm within a week. The fast increase of the water level last week, makes it likely that the peak flood in 2021 will be above the long-term average, although probably not as high as last year and in 2018.

Bulletin 1 | 2 August 2021

The new 2021-2022 flood season has begun and from now onwards OPIDIN offers weekly bulletins until the water level in Mopti has reached its peak level. Most likely the flood level this year will not be extremely high, but moderate.

Bulletin 13 | 3 November 2020

This is the last OPIDIN bulletin of 2020. The flood at Mopti has reached its highest level (670 cm) on 26 October and remained on that level for eight days and has started to decline on 2 November. The flood is this year exactly the same as in 2018, one of the highest floods in recent years. OPIDIN predicts that the south-western part of the Inner Niger Delta may become available for grazing cattle in December.

Bulletin 12 | 26 October 2020

The water level in Mopti has increased another 7 cm last week to 670 cm on 26 October. OPIDIN predicts that it will still increase by another 5 cm or more untill late October or even early November. The predicted peak in Mopti will this year be 675 – 681 cm, thus higher than in 2018. Local people must be aware that the flood will reach a level they have not seen since 1969, 51 years ago.

Bulletin 11 | 19 October 2020

The predicted peak will this year be 667 – 673 cm in Mopti, thus about as high as in 2018. The peak in Mopti will be reached in late October and the flood will be at its maximum in Akka early December.

Bulletin 10 | 15 October 2020

The water level in Mopti has increased to 657 cm on 12 October. OPIDIN predicts that the flood level will reach its peak in Mopti may-be already next week and the peak water level will be higher than 2016 but possible not higher than 2018.

Bulletin 9 | 5 Octobre 2020

The water level in Mopti has increased to 650 cm on 5 October. That is the highest water level measured on this date since 1969 and thus even higher than the water level measured on this date in two years with an extremely high flood, namely 2016 and 2018.

Bulletin 8 | 29 September 2020

The water level in Mopti has increased to 640 cm on 28 September. The peak flood level in Mopti will likely be about 680 cm and thus still rise the coming weeks 40 cm. The flood will most likely be about as high as, and possibly even higher than, 2018.

Bulletin 7 | 23 September 2020

The flood prediction of OPIDIN has not changed the last five weeks. The peak flood level in Mopti will likely be between 670 and 680 cm and thus still rise the coming weeks. The flood will most likely be about as high as 2018 and (much) higher than all other recent years.

Bulletin 6 | 14 September 2020

The flood prediction of OPIDIN shows that the flood will most likely be about as high as 2018 and (much) higher than all other recent years.

Bulletin 5 | 7 September 2020

The water level in Mopti has increased to 592 cm on 7 September. That is high in comparison to all water levels measured on this date in the last fifty years, but it is still 18 and 13 cm below the water level measured on this date in two years with an extremely high flood, namely 2016 and 2018.

Bulletin 4 | 31 August 2020

The water level in Mopti has increased to 567 cm on 31 August. That is high in comparison to all water levels measured on this date in the last fifty years, but it is still 23 and 13 cm below the water level measured on this date in two years with an extremely high flood, namely 2016 and 2018.

Bulletin 3 | 21 August 2020

The water level in Mopti has increased to 502 cm on 21 August. That is high in comparison to all water levels measured on this date in the last fifty years. The flood prediction is still uncertain and may vary depending on the amount of rainfall the coming weeks. It is already obvious, however, it will be this year an above-average flood, being as high as in 2012 and probably even as high as in 2016 and 2018.

Bulletin 2 | 10 August 2020

The water level in Mopti has increased to 432 cm on 10 August. That is high in comparison to all water levels measured on this date in the last fifty years, but it still 40 cm below the water level measured on this date in two years with an extremely high flood, namely 2016 and 2018. This is a first indication that 2020 will be a year with a flood being above average, but not as high as in 2016 and 2018.

Bulletin 1 | 3 August 2020

The new 2020-2021 flood season has begun and from now onwards OPIDIN offers weekly bulletins until the water level in Mopti has reached its peak level. Due to the high rainfall in the basin, a high flood is expected.

Bulletin 12 | 1 November 2019

This is the last OPIDIN bulletin of 2019. The flood at Mopti has reached its highest level (640 cm) on 26 October and has started to decline, but further downstream the water still goes up. OPIDIN predicts that the flood will reach its peak between 18 and 22 November in Akka and between 27 November and 5 December in Diré.

Bulletin 11 | 15 October 2019

The flood level in Mopti nearly reached its peak. Based on the information available on 15 October, OPIDIN predicts that the flood of 2019 will be above average compared to the floods of the last 25 years, and not as high as last year.

Bulletin 10 | 8 October 2019

The flood level in Mopti nearly reached its peak. Based on the information available on 7 October, OPIDIN predicts that the flood of 2019 will be above average compared to the floods of the last 25 years, and not as high as last year. The prediction of the flood level is now rather certain.

Bulletin 09 | 30 September 2019

Based on the information available on 30 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood of 2019 about as high as in 2007-2010, but not as high as in 2016 and 2018.