The water level in Mopti has risen by 40 cm within six days, from 492 cm on 18 August to 522 cm on 24 August. That is, on average, by 5 cm a day. The further increase of the water level last week makes it more likely that the peak flood in 2021 will be relatively high, probably even as high as the last three years and in 2016. On 1 August OPIDIN still predicted a moderate flood for this year since the water level in Mopti was still relatively low (280 cm, thus 100 cm lower than in 2020 on the same date). The water level has increased fast the last three weeks, by which it was this year on 24 August even 7 cm higher than last year.
In an average year, 70% of the annual rainfall in the Upper Niger falls before 24 August. The rainfall in the coming weeks can therefore still have some influence on the flood height. The weather forecast is favorable regarding the flooding of the Inner Niger Delta with above-average rainfall in the Upper Niger next fortnight (but unfortunately a forecast for below-average rainfall in Mali).
The flood prediction is still not fully sure and may still vary depending on the amount of rainfall the coming weeks. OPIDIN predicts now that the flood level will be high this year, probably as high as the last years.
