The new 2021-2022 flood season has begun and from now onwards OPIDIN offers weekly bulletins until the water level in Mopti has reached its peak level. Most likely the flood level this year will not be extremely high, but moderate.
The water level in Mopti has risen by 112 cm within a week. The fast increase of the water level last week, makes it likely that the peak flood in 2021 will be above the long-term average, although probably not as high as last year and in 2018.
The water level in Mopti has risen, on average, by 10 cm a day, which is relatively fast compared to other years. The fast increase of the water level last week, makes it more likely that the peak flood in 2021 will be relatively high, probably even as high as the last three years and in 2016.
The water level in Mopti has risen by 40 cm within six days. The increase of the water level last week makes it likely that the peak flood in 2021 will be relatively high, probably even as high as the last three years and in 2016.
The water level in Mopti rose by 45 cm within a week. The water level is this year in Mopti on 31 August already higher than the peak level of the flood in 2017, but OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will still increase about one meter and reach a peak level as high as the last three years and in 2016.
The water level in Mopti rose by 23 cm the last eight days. That is, on average, by 3 cm a day. The water level is this year in Mopti already 64 cm higher than the peak level of the flood in 2017, but OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will still increase about another 56 cm the coming weeks.
The water level in Mopti rose by 12 cm the last week. That is, on average, by 2 cm a day. The water level is this year in Mopti on 21 September already 76 cm higher than the peak level of the flood in 2017, but OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will reach a peak level as high as in 2016, 2018 and 2020.
The water level in Mopti has now been at about the same level for 22 days, and it is not likely it will increase further. It is more likely that the water level will now gradually fall and that this year the maximum water level in Mopti (633 cm) has been reached . The maximal flooding is this year about as high as in 2019.
The water level in Mopti rose by only one cm in the past week and fell by 5 cm in the next three days to 623 cm on 28 September. This indicates that the flooding has already reached its peak. However, based on the earlier course of the flood and rainfall, OPIDIN predicted that the water level would rise another 40 cm or so to reach its peak in the second half of October. It is still possible that the drop in water level last week was temporary and that the water level will rise again in the coming weeks. The unexpected course of the flood will be further analysed.
The temporary decline of the water level last week, before the peak level is reached, is extremely rare and was only observed in 2005 and 2010. It is unclear if the water level will further increase, but it is very unlikely that the flood will be as high as last year and in 2018 (670 cm). It is more likely that the peak will be as high as 2019 (640 cm) or a bit lower.
The water level in Mopti rose by 27 cm within a week. The water level is this year in Mopti on 6 September already 41 cm higher than the peak level of the flood in 2017, but OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will still increase about 90 cm the coming weeks.
