9 September 2015
Based on the information available on 9 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be about as high as last year and not as high as in 2012 and 2013. The prediction of the flood level is not yet fully certain, but there is no doubt that the flood will be higher than in 2011 and lower than in 2007-2010.
The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 527 cm on 9 September. The water level in Mopti will still increase with about 70 cm until the peak is reached in Mopti between 13 and 21 October. The flood level will be at its maximum in Akka mid-November and in Diré in the second half of November. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 9 September, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with no days with a lot of rain during the last week.
There has fallen a lot of rain in Mali, and also in Senegal and Burkina Faso, during last August. The flooding of the Inner Niger Delta, however, mainly depends on the rainfall in the south-western part of Mali and in the eastern part of Guinee-Conakry, where the total rainfall was only a bit higher than what is normal for this time of the year. This explains why the flooding of the Inner Niger Delta will not be not as high as in 2012 and 2013, despite there was a lot of rain in, and around, the Inner Niger Delta.
OPIDIN predicts that the south-western part of the Inner Niger Delta will become available for grazing cattle in the second half of November. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 15 - 20 November.
