On 6 October, the water level at Mopti stood at 532 cm and has risen by an average of more than 2 cm per day since the last bulletin on 21 September. Over the past week, the water level has even risen by 3.5 cm per day. Such a rise at this stage of the flood season is rare and is due to recent rainfall upstream. The current water level at Mopti is significantly lower than last year’s (110 cm) and 155 cm lower than two years ago (2024), a year marked by severe flooding.

OPIDIN’s forecasts predict a moderate flood of over 600 cm, significantly lower than those of 2025 (662 cm) and 2025 (716 cm). As the rainy season is already well advanced, the water level is not expected to rise significantly any further. The forecasts may therefore be too high, and the flood peak is likely to be lower than predicted (below 600 cm).

This discrepancy in the forecast is due to the erratic rainy season in the upstream areas this year. Very little rain fell in the second half of August, but there was significantly more after mid-September. This explains also the recent rise in the water level. Work is underway on a new model for next year to improve the accuracy of the forecast.