Based on the information available on 3 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood of 2019 will be relatively high compared to the floods of the last 25 years. The prediction of the flood level is rather certain, but may still change a bit depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming fortnight.
The water level in Mopti has increased another 40 cm last week (27 – 3 September), reaching a level (536 cm) being higher than most years since 1994, although still 100 cm lower than on 3 September in 2018 and in 2016 (when the floods were very high). Hence OPIDIN predicts for 2019 a maximal flood level being about as high as in 2012-2015, but not as high as in 2016 and 2018.
The total rainfall in the Upper Basin until 3 September, calculated for the last 3 months, is close to the long-term average, which is another indication that the flood will be not extremely high.
