The water level in Mopti has increased to 502 cm on 21 August. That is high in comparison to all water levels measured on this date in the last fifty years, but it is still 43 and 25 cm below the water level measured on this date in two years with an extremely high flood, namely 2016 and 2018.
Based on the current water level in Mopti, one would expect that 2020 will be a year with a peak flood level being above average, but not as high as in 2016 and 2018. However, there has been heavy rainfall recently, mainly on 11, 14, 15 and 18 August, in the Upper Bani and Upper Niger and due to all this rain during the last 10 days, OPIDIN predicts that the water level the coming fortnight will rise relatively much and that the flood of 2020 may even be as high as 2016 and 2018.
The forecast for the coming week is an enhanced chance of above-average rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin but also further downstream, making it more likely that 2020 will be a year with a high flood comparable with 2016 and 2018.
The flood prediction is still unsure and may vary depending on the amount of rainfall the coming weeks. It is already obvious, however, it will be this year an above-average flood, being as high as in 2012 (620 cm in Mopti) and probably even as high as in 2016 and 2018 (650 - 670 cm in Mopti).
