This is the last OPIDIN bulletin of 2014. The water level in Mopti has reached its peak (596 cm) on 23 October. The flood predictions of OPIDIN since 1 August have varied not much. In August, we predicted a peak flood level of 550-600 cm. In early September we gradually downgraded the prediction to about 550 cm, but in the following weeks the prediction was gradually upgraded to 580-600 cm and still later to 590-600 cm. Hence, the forecasting during the last three months was usually close to the actually observed peak flood level in Mopti, but was 40-50 cm too low in the first half of September.
Based on the information available on 13 October, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level certain.
Based on the information available on 5 October, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35-40 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 45-50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 29 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 22 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 11 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 60 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 20 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 6 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 50 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 10 – 20 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 28 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be a bit lower than 2012 or 2013 and half a meter higher than 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 21 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be a bit lower than 2012 or 2013and half a meter higher than 2011. The prediction of the flood level is not fully certain, however. Depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming fortnight, the flood can be still a bit higher or lower than predicted now.
Based on the information available on 14 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be lower than 2012 or 2013 but higher than 2011. The prediction of the flood level is not yet certain, however. Depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming fortnight, the flood can be still a bit higher or lower than predicted now.
Based on the information available on 7 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be lower than in 2012 or 2013 but higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming weeks.
Based on the information available on 1 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be lower than 2013 and possibly even nearly as low as 2011. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming weeks.
