The water level in Mopti showed again an increase last week. Based on the information available on 06th September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be high, even higher than the floods in 2014-2015, comparable to 2016. The water level in Mopti is now 52 cm higher than the peak last year (551 cm, reached on 22 September), but shows the same pattern as in 2016. Although at this stage even a higher flood is predicted, it has to be stressed that the prediction is still uncertain and depends on how long the flood will continue to rise.
The water level in Mopti on the 06th September was 603 cm, resulting in an increase of 23 cm compared to the previous week, but slows down now. The water level is about 83 cm higher than the one at the same date in 2017 but 4 cm lower than at that date in 2016. It is expected, that the water level in Mopti will show a further increase in the coming weeks until the peak is reached in Mopti during the first week of November. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka at the beginning of December and in Diré during the first week of January. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 06th September, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani.
Based on the current prediction, the south-western part of the Inner Niger Delta may become available for grazing cattle in the second decade of December. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, it is expected that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about early December.
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but from mid July onwards there is an upward trend with rainfall well above average in the Upper Niger Basin as well as in the Upper Bani. The weather models continue to forecast a rainfall above average, supporting the expectation that the flood will be high.
