Based on the information available on 3 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2016 will higher than the last four years. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can still change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.
The water level on the gauge of Mopti reached this year its peak on 27 October and remained for five days on the same level of 622 cm. While the water level in Mopti will decrease again from early November onwards, the flood level will still increase in the central part of Inner Niger Delta for some weeks and in the northern Inner Niger Delta still during the entire month November.
The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 604 cm on 12 October. OPIDIN predicts that the peak in Mopti will be reached within a week, likely even within a couple of days.
The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 590 cm on 1 October and has remained on this level now for five days. Most likely the peak in Mopti has now been reached.
Based on the information available on 1 October, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be as high as 2013 and 2014 and about 20 cm higher as last year. The prediction of the flood level is certain.
Based on the information available on 23 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be as high as 2013 and 2014 and about 20 cm higher as last year. The prediction of the flood level is nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 14 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be as high as last year and thus not as high as in 2012 and 2013. The prediction of the flood level is nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 9 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be about as high as last year and not as high as in 2012 and 2013. The prediction of the flood level is not yet fully certain, but there is no doubt that the flood will be higher than in 2011 and lower than in 2007-2010.
Based on the information available on 2 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be about as high as last year and not as high as in 2012 and 2013. The prediction of the flood level is not yet fully certain, but it has become very likely that the flood will be higher than in 2011 and lower than in 2007-2010.
Based on the information available on 26 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be about as high as the last three years. The prediction of the flood level is not yet certain, but it has become very likely that the flood will be higher than 2011 but not as high as in 2007-2011.
Based on the information available on 19 August, we predict that the flood in 2015 will about as high as the last three years. The prediction of the flood level is not yet certain, however, because we still have to wait how much rain will fall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming week.
Based on the information available on 10 August, we predict that the flood in 2015 will be higher as the last years. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming fortnight.
Based on the information available on 5 August, we predict that the flood in 2015 will be as high as last year, but probably higher. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.
Based on the information available on 29 July, we predict that the flood in 2015 will be as high as in 2014, but probably higher. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.
This is the last OPIDIN bulletin of 2014. The water level in Mopti has reached its peak (596 cm) on 23 October. The flood predictions of OPIDIN since 1 August have varied not much. In August, we predicted a peak flood level of 550-600 cm. In early September we gradually downgraded the prediction to about 550 cm, but in the following weeks the prediction was gradually upgraded to 580-600 cm and still later to 590-600 cm. Hence, the forecasting during the last three months was usually close to the actually observed peak flood level in Mopti, but was 40-50 cm too low in the first half of September.
Based on the information available on 13 October, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level certain.
Based on the information available on 5 October, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35-40 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 45-50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 29 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 22 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 11 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 60 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 20 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 6 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 50 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 10 – 20 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 28 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be a bit lower than 2012 or 2013 and half a meter higher than 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 21 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be a bit lower than 2012 or 2013and half a meter higher than 2011. The prediction of the flood level is not fully certain, however. Depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming fortnight, the flood can be still a bit higher or lower than predicted now.
Based on the information available on 14 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be lower than 2012 or 2013 but higher than 2011. The prediction of the flood level is not yet certain, however. Depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming fortnight, the flood can be still a bit higher or lower than predicted now.
Based on the information available on 7 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be lower than in 2012 or 2013 but higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming weeks.
Based on the information available on 1 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be lower than 2013 and possibly even nearly as low as 2011. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming weeks.
The water level has reached its peak in Mopti this year on 14 October (621 cm) and remained at that level until 19 October, declining by 1 cm on 20 and 21 October and by 2 cm on 22 and 23 October.
Based on the information available on 11 October, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be as high as in 2007, 2008 and 2009 and nearly as high as in 2010 and 2012. The prediction of the peak flood has not changed any more since 3 September and will not change anymore.
Based on the information available on 1 October, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be as high as in 2010 and 2012. The prediction of the peak flood has not changed any more since 3 September and will not change anymore.
Based on the information available on 21 September, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be as high as in 2010 and 2012. The prediction of the peak flood has not changed any more since 3 September and it is very unlikely that it will change much during the coming weeks.
