The water level in Mopti showed still a small increase last week, but the peak is nearly reached. Based on the information available on 18th October, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be even a bit higher than 2016. The water level in Mopti is now 112 cm higher than the peak last year (551 cm, reached on 22 September), and shows the same pattern as in 2016. It is expected that the flood will not rise much higher as the flood peak passed Bamako already.
The water level in Mopti on the 18th October was 663 cm, resulting in an increase of 11 cm compared to the previous week. The water level is 6 cm higher than the one at the same date in 2016. It is expected, that the water level in Mopti will now show only a very slight increase, until the peak in Mopti will be reached in the end of October. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka in the end of November and in Diré around half of December.
Based on the current prediction, the south-western part of the Inner Niger Delta may become available for grazing cattle around half of December. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, it is expected that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé in the second week of December.
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but from mid-July onwards there is an upward trend with rainfall well above average in the Upper Niger Basin as well as in the Upper Bani. The weather models forecast that the rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin comes to an end.
