Based on the information available on 3rd August, OPIDIN predicts that there will be an average flood in 2018, not very low and not very high. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain. Much can still change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger basin during the coming weeks.
The water level in Mopti on the 2nd August was 405 cm, which is about 30 cm higher than the water level at the same date last year. Since 1970, the water level in Mopti is usually about 300 cm in early August, so it is above normal 105 cm this year, comparable to 2016, a year with a high flood.
Up to now rainfall in the basin during the first months of the rainy season was just below average, but rainfall increased clearly in July in the Upper Niger as well as in the Upper Baní. Thanks to the increase in July, the cumulative rainfall up till now is even higher than normal at this time of year. The weather models forecast for the coming week a normal rainfall, and above average for the week after. For this reason, the water level is expected to increase in the same rate during the next fortnight.
