4 October 2016
Based on the information available on 4 October, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will become the highest flood in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.
The water level in Mopti was already high early August, but had further increased 2.5 meter in the last nine weeks to reach the extremely high level of 649 cm on 4 October. The water level reached on 4 October has never been so high on this date in recent years. One has to go back to 1969 to have a year with a similar high water level in Mopti on 4 October.
OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will further increase by about 45 cm in October. The flooding will reach its peak between 28 October and 5 November in Mopti, between 27 November and 1 December in Akka and between 14 and 22 December in Diré. The last dozens of years, cows were allowed to cross the river at Diafarabé during the course of November. That will not be possible this year, since in November the floodplains will still be covered by water. In 2016, the floodplains will become available for grazing after mid-December.
