13 September 2017
Based on the information available on 13 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016. With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will have a moderate level, lower than in 2015 and 2016. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, depending on additional rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin over the next weeks.
The water level in Mopti reached the level of 540 cm on 13 September, resulting in an increase of 20 cm compared to the previous week. The rate of increase slowed down, resulting in a lower forecast. With the current information, it is expected, that the water level in Mopti will reach its peak around half October. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka during the first decade of November and in Diré 10 days later. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 13 September, but also take into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani.
OPIDIN predicts that the south-western part of the Inner Niger Delta will become available for grazing cattle in the second half of November. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 15 - 30 November.
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the first half of September in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The rainfall in the first 2 weeks of September was also a bit higher than normal in this time of the year. The weather models still forecast for the coming week a rainfall being above-average, but the reliability is uncertain.
