Based on the information available on 20 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will be lower as the past two years (2015 and 2016). With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will have a moderate level (582 cm at Mopti scale). This prediction of the flood level has already a high reliability, but is still depending on additional rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin over the next weeks.
The water level in Mopti reached the level of 548 cm on 20 September, resulting in an increase of 8 cm in the previous week. The rate of increase has been slowing down, resulting in a lower forecast. With the current information, it is expected, that the water level in Mopti will reach its peak during the third week of October. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka around half of November and in Diré at the end of that month. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 20 September, but also take into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani.
OPIDIN predicts that the south-western part of the Inner Niger Delta will become available for grazing cattle in the second half of November. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 15 - 20 November.
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the first half of September, especially in the Upper Baní. Rains were modest in the second half of September. The weather models still forecast for the coming week a rainfall being above-average, but the reliability is moderate.
