The predicted flood peak is presented in the graph below, and in a second graph compared with the flood peak in preceding years. More explanation is given below each graph.
The presented prediction is based on the current measurements of the water level in Mopti combined with the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin. The accuracy of the prediction is expressed by showing the minimum and maximum predicted water levels (confidence interval). The predicted flood peak is expected to be higher than minimum (red line in the graph) and lower than maximum (green line) and likely to be near to the mean (orange line). The prediction of the peak flood level changes during the course of August and September and becomes more accurate in course of time.
The graph above shows the latest prediction of the flood level in the current year, compared to the annual maximum flood level in the past. The horizontal lines give the predicted peak flood level for this year. The bars show the variation in the annual maximal flood level since 1907 (measured since 1955, but reconstructed in the years before using the water level measurements at other hydrometric stations).
