On October 25, the water level at Mopti reached 585 cm. Since the last bulletin on October 6, the water has risen by 53 cm, nearly 3 cm per day. Such a rise this late in the flooding season is exceptional and is due to the late rainfall in October in the upstream areas of the Upper Niger Basin. The current water level at Mopti on 25 October is significantly lower than last year’s (75 cm) on the same date and 120 cm lower than two years ago (2024), a year marked by severe flooding.same data

OPIDIN predicts a moderate flood of over 600 cm, significantly lower than those of 2025 (662 cm) and 2025 (716 cm). Since the rainy season is now almost over, and there is currently (late October) no rain falling in the upstream areas —nor is any expected—the current rise is expected to level off and the peak is reached in the near future. The forecast may therefore be too high, and the flood peak is likely to be lower than predicted (below 600 cm).

This discrepancy in the forecast is due to the erratic rainy season in the upstream areas this year. Very little rain fell in the second half of August, but there was significantly more after mid-September. This explains also the recent rise in the water level. Work is underway on a new model for next year to improve the accuracy of the forecast.