The water level in Mopti rose by 41 cm within seven days, from 554 cm on 14 August to 595 cm on 21 August. That is, on average, 6 cm a day. Currently, the water level is already almost at the same height as last year’s maximum level. A similar high level was recorded only during very high floods in the former century. A further increase of the water level therefore makes it likely that the peak flood in 2024 will be high, probably even higher than in the recent years with a high flood (2018, 2020, 2022).
In an average year, almost three-quarters of the annual rainfall in the Upper Niger falls before 24 August. Rainfall over the next few weeks may therefore still have some influence on the level of flooding. Weather forecasts for the coming weeks indicate that there is a good chance of above-average rainfall in the Upper Niger, including southern Mali.
Flooding forecasts are not yet completely certain and may still vary depending on the amount of rainfall in the coming weeks. OPIDIN now predicts that the level of flooding will be high this year, probably even higher than in previous years when flooding has been significant.
