The water level in Mopti has risen by 60 cm within the past two weeks, from 415 cm on 1 August to 487 cm on 13 August. That is, on average, by almost 6 cm a day. The further increase of the water level last week makes it likely that the peak flood in 2025 will be much lower than last year and comparable or higher than two years before. The water level in Mopti on 13 August was 58 cm lower than last year (2024, very high flood) but 87 higher than the year before (2023, modest flood) at the same date.

In an average year, most of the annual rainfall in the Upper Niger falls before 24 August. The rainfall in the coming weeks can therefore still have some influence on the flood height. Rainfall in the Upper Niger over the past few weeks however was low. Also the weather forecast for the coming weeks is below-average in the Upper Niger basin.

The flood prediction is not certain and may vary depending on the amount of rainfall the coming weeks. OPIDIN predicts now that the flood level will be moderate this year, much lower than last year but probably higher than two year before.