The water level in Mopti showed a significant increase the last week. Based on the information available on 15th August, OPIDIN predicts now that there will be an above average flood in 2018, and higher than the floods in 2014-2015. Although at this stage a (very) high flood is predicted, it has to be stressed that the prediction is still uncertain and depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger basin during the coming weeks.
The water level in Mopti on the 15th August was 490 cm, resulting in an increase of 40 cm compared to the previous week. Also, this water level is about 55 cm higher than the one at the same date in 2017 and comparable with the level on this date in 2016. It is expected, that the water level in Mopti will show a further increase in the coming week until the peak is reached in Mopti at the beginning of November. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka at the beginning of December and in Diré during the third week of December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 15th August, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with very rainy days during the last week.
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain at last decade of July and the first decade of August, and an upward trend until the third decade of August in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The rainfall in the first eight days of August was also higher than normal in this time of the year. The weather models forecast for coming week again a rainfall being above average, supporting the expectation that the flood will be above average, or even high.
