21 August 2014
Based on the information available on 21 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be a bit lower than 2012 or 2013and half a meter higher than 2011. The prediction of the flood level is not fully certain, however. Depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming fortnight, the flood can be still a bit higher or lower than predicted now.
The water level in Mopti increased 55 cm last week to reach on 20 August a level of 400 cm, which is 40 cm below the average calculated over the last 20 years for this date. This does not necessarily mean that the peak flood level will be low, but it becomes very unlikely that the peak flood will be high this year. There was last week more rainfall in the Upper Bani and Niger than the weeks before. That is why the predicted flood level in Mopti has been upgraded 16 cm during the last week. The predictions regarding the rainfall in the catchment area of the Upper Niger and the Bani for the coming days are above to what is normal in this time of the year. That is why the predicted flood level may still be a bit higher than predicted at present, but the difference will be small.
