The water level in Mopti increased by another 7 cm last week to 670 cm on 26 October. OPIDIN predicts that it will still increase another 5 - 11 cm until the end of October - beginning of November. The highest flood since 1969 was in 2018, when the highest water level in Mopti was 670 cm. The predicted peak in Mopti this year will be 675 - 681 cm, thus 5 to 11 cm higher than in 2018. Local people must be aware that the flood will reach a level they have not seen since 1969, 51 years ago.
High flood levels as in 2018 and 2020 were not rare before 1969. Between 1907 and 1969 the peak flood level in Mopti was in 40 of the 63 years (63%) higher than 670 cm and in many of those years even about 700 cm.
The peak in Mopti will be reached in late October or early November and the flood will be at its maximum in Akka early December and in Dire mid-December. Based on the current prediction, the south-western part of the Inner Niger Delta may become available for grazing cattle in December. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, it is expected that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé mid-December.
