The water level in Mopti has increased to 393 cm on 3 August. That is very high in comparison to all water levels measured on this date in the last fifty years. There are only three years when the water level was still a bit higher on 3 August, namely 406 cm in 2004 and 410 cm in 2016 and 2018, which were three years with a very high peak flood level. This is a first indication that 2020 will be a year with a high flood.
Also the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the last four months promises a very high flood. It is still early August, so we are only halfway the rainy season, but the rainfall in the Upper Niger River so far is extremely high. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is still more rain with an enhanced chance of above-average rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin but also further downstream.
The flood prediction is still unsure and may vary depending on the amount of rainfall the coming weeks. It is already obvious, however, it will be this year a relatively high flood and possibly even one of the highest flood levels of the last 50 years.
