24 August 2017
Based on the information available on 24 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016. With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will reach a relative good level, a bit higher than the four preceding years (2012-2015). However, the prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, because we still have to wait for rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin over the next two weeks.
The water level in Mopti reached the level of 485 cm on 24 August, resulting in an increase of 50 cm compared to the previous week. It is expected, that the water level in Mopti will show a further increase in the coming week until the peak is reached in Mopti in the last decade of October. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka during the second decade of November and in Diré a week later. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 24 August, but also take into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with very rainy days during the last week.
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the first half of August in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The rainfall in the first 15 days of August was also higher than normal in this time of the year. The weather models still forecast for the coming two weeks again a rainfall being above average. For this reason, it is expected that the flood forecast might even show an increase during the coming fortnight.
